NCAA Football BCS Nightmare Scenarios

Deck the Halls! 'Tis the Season. Nope, not for egg knog and holiday music... well. Maybe it's that to. But it's also the time of year where all of us who cover college football, are fans of college football, work in college football begin to freak out. We have two reasons for commencing freak out on our friends or radio shows:

1) EVERYBODY IS GOING UNDEFEATED! What are we going to do with 9 undefeated teams at the end of the year?!

Or...

2) All of the teams we had planned all season long in playing for a national championship are losing! We can't have Auburn in the national championship. We didn't PREDICT Auburn to be in the National Championship.

While neither of the above will come true (the BCS always seems to work outself out with 2 teams left standing at the end) it is fun to start to speculate on some of the nightmare scenarios for conference commissioners, University Presidents, and the TV Networks who have spent so much money to get these games and then possibly have nobody want to tune in.

Now that we've moved on past freak our scenario #1 (we're down to 3 relevant undefeated teams and I'm not sure ANY of them win out over the next 2 weeks) let's move on to scenario #2. Besides, this one is a lot more fun to discuss. Here are some very real possibilities that many people in college football do not want to have happen. I'll put a percentage of likelihood next to each one as well and we'll monitor over the next few weeks to see if any come true.

Commissioner John Swofford's Nightmare (ACC):
Florida State Football is back on top of the college football world. It has the best QB in college football and is sitting pretty with a #2 ranking and can walk into the national title game. There are two nightmare situations here... one we'll get into later on with FSU making it into the National Championship. Here's the other.
Duke is having the season of all seasons. This week they lose to a surging North Carolina team. VT barely beats UVA, Miami beats Pitt. Five of the Seven teams in the Coastal Division are all tied at 5-3 in conference play. The pundits in the ACC didn't even know this was mathematically possible. The tie breakers comes down to record in division which VT wins at 5-1 (this is Coach Beamer's 2nd worse teams in a decade, the worst was last year). The Hokies defense finds itself from the defense that dominated GT, UNC, and Miami. Jameis is charged with rape and is suspended from the game. An unranked VT team wins the ACC title game, which is attended by 30,000 people because the general public doesn't want to go with Jameis not playing, VT fans don't go because they always go and they think they'll lose, FSU fans are mad at the State Attorney and they don't buy tickets, a bunch of Duke fans who pre-purchased tickets decide to hold on to the money for hotel and gas and wait for the NCAA Basketball tournament. VT goes to the Orange Bowl, and gets pummeled by David Carr's little brother at Fresno State.
A national Championship and the Heisman tropy are gone in an instant. Clemson wins the Sugar Bowl over Auburn, but nobody gives a damn. Likelihood of Happening: A lot more than you realize. I'm going with 65%

Commissoner Mike Slives Nightmare (SEC):
After seven years of total domination, and two teams ranked in the top 5 going into the final week of the regular season it appears Mike Slive will make his annually scheduled trip back to the sidelines of the BCS National Championship game. But it's not to be. The SEC doesn't like surprise teams. They like traditional powers. It's what the conference was built on. Cinderella does not live in Mississippi or Alabama. So the thought of an Auburn vs. Missouri SEC Championship game will make Mike Slives skin crawl. And it's very possible. Two teams that combined to go 8-16 last year are now each one win away from a meeting in Atlanta. And both teams are HOME for that final game. If they both lose, it will be Alabama vs. South Carolina. Nick Saban vs. Steve Spurrier. The game will be played centrally between the two schools. You've never seen so much clashing of Garnet and Maroon before. This is SEC Football. But if Mizzou and Auburn pull it out, it will be Tigers vs. Tigers. Auburn would have an outside shot of leaping into the national championship with a win, but a win over Mizzou isn't as heavy as Ohio State beating Michigan State. So they won't leap that high. Plus this is a nightmare, right? In their 2nd year in the conference, the team who was invited to the SEC simply to have a rival for the Aggies and create balanced divisions wins the whole thing. Coach Gary Pinkel has this to say after winning the title, "We played well". Thanks, Coach. Likelihood of happening: 30%. Alabama is really good and should roll over Auburn. They will destroy whoever they play in Atlanta.

Commissioner Jim Delany's Nightmare (Big Ten):
This is all working according to plan. Urban Meyer has successfully built another evil empire in Columbus by pounding the powerhouses that are San Diego State, Buffalo and Florida A&M. But hey, they're undefeated. You also have a Michigan State team who inexplicably lost to Notre Dame, but is still 10-1 and could be ranked in the top ten for the Big Ten Championship. Alabama could lose to Auburn, FSU could lose their star, Ohio State is comfortably sitting at #3 ready to move into the national title game. Here's the nightmare. Michigan State, who nobody is talking about, goes up against the Golden Gophers in the season finale and they lose (Minnesota is ranked #25 after all). MSU already has their ticket punched to the Championship. They then go in and knock off the Buckeyes. Michigan State plays Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl. Lane Kiffin is invited in as an honorary captain and special assistant or some bogus coaching role for the Spartans where he's paid $1.2 Million for his services and naturally, they lose by 40. Likelihood of happening: 40% Don't write off the Spartans. The Lane Kiffin thing: 0%. But how great would it be?

Commissioner Larry Scott's Nightmare (Pac 12):
Stanfords gets into the top 5 national rankings. Loses to Utah. Somehow gets back to the top 5 (don't tell me Condy Rice doesn't have an impact on college football), Beats Oregon in the Thursday Night Game of the Century by gaining 3.5 yards per play every down. Follows that up by losing to Southern Cal who was 4-3 and totally irrelevant a month ago. Oregon gets back on track after the Stanford loss (not a bad loss and they're still in the race) by beating Utah and then they lose by 26 to Arizona who is dressed entirely in red head to toe, symbolizing the Devil in Larry Scott's Nightmare. Marcus Mariota says after the game the Rose Bowl isn't important to him because he's been there and done that. The Heisman contingency now leaves him off the ballot because they only give the Heisman to stand up individuals who respect the game and amateur athleticism of college sports. With two weeks to go in the season nobody is better than 2 losses.
Oh... wait. Sorry Larry. Likelihood of happening: 100%

Dr. Mark Emmert's Nightmare (President of NCAA):
Everything actually works out. FSU wins out. James is acquitted of any charges. Ohio State loses to Sparty. Alabama and FSU are the only 2 unbeatens from BCS conferences and will play for the national title. The final year of the BCS as we know it is a success.
But two things happen over Christmas. Mack Brown is privately told to put in his resignation or be publicly humiliated. He agrees to resign but Texas will wait until Jan 15 to announce the news. Also Nick Sabans wife purchases a home in Austin. The Real Estate agent leaks the news that Nick Saban will leave Alabama for Texas after the season. The University doesn't mind because they instantly win all recruiting battles with the Sooners and Aggies with this news.
Back in Tallahassee, some new evidence is uncovered in the Jameis Winston investigation and he is in fact charged with a felony by the State Attorney. By FSU Rule, he is immediately suspended from the football and baseball team. Since FSU can now no longer generate points, and A.J. McCarron can do nothing wrong in life with or without Saban (have you seen A.J's girlfriend?) Alabama wins another national championship. Tide fans are pissed thought because they will never win another national championship again with Saban gone, the ratings for the championship game plummet when 'Bama is up 21-0 at halftime and the college football season ends at the lowest of all low points. Likelihood of happening: .02%

Aaron Marks is the host of The Drive which airs M-F 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on Sports Radio 100.3 The Team. Follow him on twitter @AMonFM

Final day of the regular season!

Today is the final day of the college baseball regular season, and there is plenty riding on the line for teams from Baton Rouge to Blacksburg. Some teams are playing for the number one seed in their conference tournaments and some are just trying to get into the tournament.

So here are today's situations for the SEC, Big South, and ACC that you need to be listening and watching for...

BIG SOUTH

Let's start with the Big South because its pretty simple. Coastal Carolina locked in the #1 seed in the tournament yesterday for the 6th consecutive season by winning game one over Charleston Southern. They added to their RPI by winning game two and look to finish off the series sweep today. Coach Gary Gilmore sat his star catcher Tucker Frawley in game two, Tyler Herb pitched limited innings in game one, so the Chants are certainly in post-season preparation mode. But who will they play on Tuesday and what time...

High Point is playing for their post-season lives. The conference tournament is on a rotation basis and this year it hits High Point which increases the pressure today. Winthrop and High Point are closing out the season playing for the #8 seed. Only 8 teams make the conference tournament and Presbyterian is ineligible for the post season this year in conference play. If High Point wins today's finale, they are in. And as the host team they get the feature 8:00 game on Tuesday night. So that means CCU would play host High Point in the #1 vs. #8 match up on Tuesday. So #8 gets to host? That's the way it works sometimes. If Winthrop wins then CCU will play Winthrop on Tuesday at 4:30 when the #1 vs. #8 game is currently planned. Last time the two teams met was what turned out to be the final game at Watson Stadium last Saturday and Winthrop got the win. CCU doesn't care who they get, they just want to play some baseball. And as the station Sports Director, I just want to know if I have a show on Tuesday or not!

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

On to the SEC which has CRAZY story lines going today. The Gamecocks could be the #1 overall seed, or as low as the #4 seed. Here's the situation...

The #1 and #2 seeds go to the two division winners based on conference winning percentage, NOT the two best teams but as it turns out its going to likely work out that way. Seeds #3-#10 are based purely on overall winning percentage, doesn't matter what division you play in or what your division record is! But those things typically co-relate. So here are the top four seeds and how things work today:

As I said, USC is overall #1 with a .643 conference winning percentage right now. Kentucky and Florida are a 1/2 game back with a .621 winning percentage. So the Eastern Division is intense today on the final day of the season. Before I get into those details... what about the West? It's done. LSU is at worst the #2 seed, but they get the #1 seed if they beat USC tonight. Either way they get a bye and will not play on Tuesday. They are three games ahead of 2nd place Arkansas.

So back to the East. If USC wins today they are the #1 seed in the tournament. Simple. Easy. Just Win Baby. If they lose... things get very interesting because they could still be #2, #3 or #4. They want to be #1 or #2 because in a 10 team tournament that's one less day and one less game you have to play to win the conference. Also if you win the SEC Regular Season title there is no way you don't get one of the eight national seeds with home field advantage all the way through to Omaha. Is that important? Last year 6 of the 8 College World Series teams were national seeds.

A loss today for USC plus a loss for UK against Mississippi State (UK is reeling. They have gone from regular season champion to having lost 3 in a row to Murray State and Mississippi State so if they don't make something happen in the next week they will not be a national seed), and a loss for Florida who is playing Auburn, will leave USC as the #2 seed. If either of those teams win, then they pass USC. So one of them winning makes USC the #3 seed. Both of them winning means USC is the #4 seed. Crazy stuff.

How about the bottom of the standings? Anyone playing their way in? Nope. Tennessee and Alabama will not make the SEC tournament. So everyone else is just playing for seeding today.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

And finally on to the last conference we cover in Myrtle Beach... the ACC. Let's talk about the format first. This is why people either love or hate college athletics. Conferences can't even agree on a similar format. The NCAA Tournament doesn't even play the same format in each section. It goes from a four team double elimination pod in round one, to a best of 3 between two team Super Regional, to a double elimination eight team college world series.

So the Big South is an 8 team double elimination, just like the College World Series. What a concept. Why doesn't everyone just do that? Who knows. The SEC plays a 10 team format with #1 and #2 getting byes on day one. It it double elimination from Tuesday - Friday, but once you get to the semifinals and finals on Saturday and Sunday it becomes single elimination. And then there's the ACC. The ACC is a 12 team conference with two 6 team divisions, just like the SEC. The ACC allows 8 teams in, like the SEC used to do until this year, and like the Big South currently does. The eight teams are seeded #1-#8. But then they are divided up into two four team pods that do not play double elimination like the 1st round of the World Series, but play a Round Robin tournament so that everyone gets three games. And the confusion doesn't stop there. Pod one is seeds #1, #4, #5, and #8. Pod two is seeds #2, #3, #6, and #7. If you can follow the NCAA Rules handbook... then it makes sense! AND these 8 seeds are not the overall 8 seeds in the conference but they are the top 4 seeds from each division, then re-seeded 1-8 based on winning percentage. I get that the ACC has a lot of schools that are difficult to get into academically, but are they trying to confuse everyone who struggled with math in school? Stop letting the Engineers at Virginia Tech come up with your post season format! Ask a guy from Tuscaloosa. He'll come up with something we can all understand... and then he'll poison your trees that have been in your family for 9 generations.

Concerning seeds, #1 will be Florida State. #2 will be North Carolina. But the Tar Heels are the hottest team in America riding a 12-game winning streak into the final day of the regular season. Let me see a show of hands for who wants to play those guys right now. AND the tournament is in Greensboro. Which leads to two random thoughts real quick...

1) Wasn't the tournament supposed to be in Myrtle Beach at the Pelicans Stadium? Oh yea it was... but the NAACP got involved and was going to boycott it because the state of SC has not removed the confederate flag from the State House grounds. So goodbye tens of thousands in revenue for our servers, hoteliers, and that balloon guy I saw at the Outback last night (I'm being serious with that one, my wife and I declined the balloon animal because we're older than 12 and wanted to spend our money on Skinny Margaritas for her, and Stella Artois for me). But this is for a whole other column that will probably come... next week!

2) Didn't FSU's president say a good reason to leave the ACC was that it was to North Carolina-centric? I'm sure he's not thrilled about his #1 Seminoles traveling to Greensboro to try to win this tournament.

Outside of the top seeds... Maryland, BC and Duke are out. There is one story line to watch and that is Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech who are deadlocked for the #8 overall seed, and 4th place in the Coastal Division. Virginia Tech has the upper hand because their overall record is significantly better. So if the Hokies win today, they are in. If they lose but GT also loses to Miami (which has happened the last two days) they are in.

Come back to this blog tomorrow and I'll have the seeding's and game times for all three conference tournaments!

Aaron Marks is the Sports Director for ESPN Radio 100.3 The Team in Myrtle Beach, SC and the host of "The Drive" which airs daily from 4-6 p.m. 
Follow Aaron on Twitter @AMonFM, follow his station @1003theteam