NCAA Football BCS Nightmare Scenarios

Deck the Halls! 'Tis the Season. Nope, not for egg knog and holiday music... well. Maybe it's that to. But it's also the time of year where all of us who cover college football, are fans of college football, work in college football begin to freak out. We have two reasons for commencing freak out on our friends or radio shows:

1) EVERYBODY IS GOING UNDEFEATED! What are we going to do with 9 undefeated teams at the end of the year?!

Or...

2) All of the teams we had planned all season long in playing for a national championship are losing! We can't have Auburn in the national championship. We didn't PREDICT Auburn to be in the National Championship.

While neither of the above will come true (the BCS always seems to work outself out with 2 teams left standing at the end) it is fun to start to speculate on some of the nightmare scenarios for conference commissioners, University Presidents, and the TV Networks who have spent so much money to get these games and then possibly have nobody want to tune in.

Now that we've moved on past freak our scenario #1 (we're down to 3 relevant undefeated teams and I'm not sure ANY of them win out over the next 2 weeks) let's move on to scenario #2. Besides, this one is a lot more fun to discuss. Here are some very real possibilities that many people in college football do not want to have happen. I'll put a percentage of likelihood next to each one as well and we'll monitor over the next few weeks to see if any come true.

Commissioner John Swofford's Nightmare (ACC):
Florida State Football is back on top of the college football world. It has the best QB in college football and is sitting pretty with a #2 ranking and can walk into the national title game. There are two nightmare situations here... one we'll get into later on with FSU making it into the National Championship. Here's the other.
Duke is having the season of all seasons. This week they lose to a surging North Carolina team. VT barely beats UVA, Miami beats Pitt. Five of the Seven teams in the Coastal Division are all tied at 5-3 in conference play. The pundits in the ACC didn't even know this was mathematically possible. The tie breakers comes down to record in division which VT wins at 5-1 (this is Coach Beamer's 2nd worse teams in a decade, the worst was last year). The Hokies defense finds itself from the defense that dominated GT, UNC, and Miami. Jameis is charged with rape and is suspended from the game. An unranked VT team wins the ACC title game, which is attended by 30,000 people because the general public doesn't want to go with Jameis not playing, VT fans don't go because they always go and they think they'll lose, FSU fans are mad at the State Attorney and they don't buy tickets, a bunch of Duke fans who pre-purchased tickets decide to hold on to the money for hotel and gas and wait for the NCAA Basketball tournament. VT goes to the Orange Bowl, and gets pummeled by David Carr's little brother at Fresno State.
A national Championship and the Heisman tropy are gone in an instant. Clemson wins the Sugar Bowl over Auburn, but nobody gives a damn. Likelihood of Happening: A lot more than you realize. I'm going with 65%

Commissoner Mike Slives Nightmare (SEC):
After seven years of total domination, and two teams ranked in the top 5 going into the final week of the regular season it appears Mike Slive will make his annually scheduled trip back to the sidelines of the BCS National Championship game. But it's not to be. The SEC doesn't like surprise teams. They like traditional powers. It's what the conference was built on. Cinderella does not live in Mississippi or Alabama. So the thought of an Auburn vs. Missouri SEC Championship game will make Mike Slives skin crawl. And it's very possible. Two teams that combined to go 8-16 last year are now each one win away from a meeting in Atlanta. And both teams are HOME for that final game. If they both lose, it will be Alabama vs. South Carolina. Nick Saban vs. Steve Spurrier. The game will be played centrally between the two schools. You've never seen so much clashing of Garnet and Maroon before. This is SEC Football. But if Mizzou and Auburn pull it out, it will be Tigers vs. Tigers. Auburn would have an outside shot of leaping into the national championship with a win, but a win over Mizzou isn't as heavy as Ohio State beating Michigan State. So they won't leap that high. Plus this is a nightmare, right? In their 2nd year in the conference, the team who was invited to the SEC simply to have a rival for the Aggies and create balanced divisions wins the whole thing. Coach Gary Pinkel has this to say after winning the title, "We played well". Thanks, Coach. Likelihood of happening: 30%. Alabama is really good and should roll over Auburn. They will destroy whoever they play in Atlanta.

Commissioner Jim Delany's Nightmare (Big Ten):
This is all working according to plan. Urban Meyer has successfully built another evil empire in Columbus by pounding the powerhouses that are San Diego State, Buffalo and Florida A&M. But hey, they're undefeated. You also have a Michigan State team who inexplicably lost to Notre Dame, but is still 10-1 and could be ranked in the top ten for the Big Ten Championship. Alabama could lose to Auburn, FSU could lose their star, Ohio State is comfortably sitting at #3 ready to move into the national title game. Here's the nightmare. Michigan State, who nobody is talking about, goes up against the Golden Gophers in the season finale and they lose (Minnesota is ranked #25 after all). MSU already has their ticket punched to the Championship. They then go in and knock off the Buckeyes. Michigan State plays Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl. Lane Kiffin is invited in as an honorary captain and special assistant or some bogus coaching role for the Spartans where he's paid $1.2 Million for his services and naturally, they lose by 40. Likelihood of happening: 40% Don't write off the Spartans. The Lane Kiffin thing: 0%. But how great would it be?

Commissioner Larry Scott's Nightmare (Pac 12):
Stanfords gets into the top 5 national rankings. Loses to Utah. Somehow gets back to the top 5 (don't tell me Condy Rice doesn't have an impact on college football), Beats Oregon in the Thursday Night Game of the Century by gaining 3.5 yards per play every down. Follows that up by losing to Southern Cal who was 4-3 and totally irrelevant a month ago. Oregon gets back on track after the Stanford loss (not a bad loss and they're still in the race) by beating Utah and then they lose by 26 to Arizona who is dressed entirely in red head to toe, symbolizing the Devil in Larry Scott's Nightmare. Marcus Mariota says after the game the Rose Bowl isn't important to him because he's been there and done that. The Heisman contingency now leaves him off the ballot because they only give the Heisman to stand up individuals who respect the game and amateur athleticism of college sports. With two weeks to go in the season nobody is better than 2 losses.
Oh... wait. Sorry Larry. Likelihood of happening: 100%

Dr. Mark Emmert's Nightmare (President of NCAA):
Everything actually works out. FSU wins out. James is acquitted of any charges. Ohio State loses to Sparty. Alabama and FSU are the only 2 unbeatens from BCS conferences and will play for the national title. The final year of the BCS as we know it is a success.
But two things happen over Christmas. Mack Brown is privately told to put in his resignation or be publicly humiliated. He agrees to resign but Texas will wait until Jan 15 to announce the news. Also Nick Sabans wife purchases a home in Austin. The Real Estate agent leaks the news that Nick Saban will leave Alabama for Texas after the season. The University doesn't mind because they instantly win all recruiting battles with the Sooners and Aggies with this news.
Back in Tallahassee, some new evidence is uncovered in the Jameis Winston investigation and he is in fact charged with a felony by the State Attorney. By FSU Rule, he is immediately suspended from the football and baseball team. Since FSU can now no longer generate points, and A.J. McCarron can do nothing wrong in life with or without Saban (have you seen A.J's girlfriend?) Alabama wins another national championship. Tide fans are pissed thought because they will never win another national championship again with Saban gone, the ratings for the championship game plummet when 'Bama is up 21-0 at halftime and the college football season ends at the lowest of all low points. Likelihood of happening: .02%

Aaron Marks is the host of The Drive which airs M-F 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on Sports Radio 100.3 The Team. Follow him on twitter @AMonFM

NHL Playoffs are As Advertised

The NHL Playoffs is the greatest post season tournament in the world that very few in America seem to care about. We are in a sports society where 78,000 fans will show up to watch the University of Alabama football team practice, but on Sat. night when 3 of the 4 NHL playoff games involving major market teams from Chicago, NY,  and Boston all go into OT more people tune in to watch a struggling Mavs team take on a Kobe-less Lakes squad (and Lamar Odom was at home watching Say Yes to the Dress re-runs with Khloe).

And I can tell you exactly why. But before I do that let's just take a quick glance at what most sports fans have been missing so far this season.

1. Could we have two teams in the same season come back from down 0-3? The Pittsburgh Penguins (called the most talented team in the NHL when healthy by Barry Melrose on my show) seemed to have everything going right only to have it go completely wrong in the first 3 games against the Philadelphia Flyers. It hasn't been for a lack of putting the puck in the net (for those that are counting 50 goals have been registered in 5 games so far) but a lack of defense and solid goaltending AFTER the first period has been the issue.
Now they seem to have found their stride only giving up 5 goals in the last two games, and scoring 13. I love how these series in all of post-season sports can shift and change. The Flyers were up 3-0 at home and leading 3-2 in the 1st period of Game 4. This thing was over. Forty-Five mine of game clock time later it was a 10-3 embarrassment and the series was going back to Pittsburgh. The Penguins go home and win a defensive effort (who knew they play defense in PA?!) 3-2. NOW we go to Game 6 and Flyers fans may be getting a bit nervous. The last time they saw these two teams in their building the Penguins scored 8 consecutive goals to end the scoring for the game. A win for Pittsburgh on Sunday and we go BACK to the Penguins home ice for a decisive game 7. Funny how quickly 3-0 can turn into uh oh...
And that brings us to the Vancouver Canucks (can a guy drop a Russian Rocket Reference here!) who nearly became the first team ever to win the Presidents Trophy for most points in a regular season and go down in a 4-0 sweep in the first series. But the tides have changed there as well. Henrik and Daniel Sedin are Swedish twin brother who act as one unit. They even negotiate their contracts together to ensure they will play for the same team. Henrik, the leading scorer of the two, had missed 12 consecutive games with concussion symptoms. What happens when you take a pair of twins who have played hockey their entire life together and separate them in the playoffs? It's kind of like Lebron playing basketball without the use of his left arm. And your teams goes down 0-3 to the lowly 8 seed Kings. But in that decisive Game 4 sweep opportunity in L.A. Henrik came back. The Canucks got the win, and now we go back to Vancouver (which is known as one of the best home ice advantages in all of the NHL... that is when the twins are playing together and Lebron has both arms available). Could we be headed again for that all important final home game for the underdog in Game 6? We'll see...

2. Speaking of home ice advantage in the playoffs, where has it gone? Vancouver and Pittsburgh didn't help this stat by going down 0-3, two of those games being at home, but right now road teams hold a record of 21-13 so far in these playoffs. So maybe the Kings will be better off with 2 of the final 3 possible games being played in Vancouver. What gives? Extra confidence on the road? Shutting up the crowd? The joy of hearing boo-birds rain down on the home team? Whatever it is it is difficult to explain. The one round home ice tends to hold true is the 1st round with the more lopsided match ups. But either way it's going to be a lot of fun.

3. No Sweeps. How many Game 7's? So we've been at this thing for a week and a half. Over 8 series 34 games have been played and only one series is complete with last nights victory for the Nashville Predators (if Cary Underwood hung out near my locker room I'd be motivated to be the first to win the series as well).  All the Western Conference series are lopsided 3-1 affairs right now, but that includes the #1 seed Canucks gaining confidence as they head home for Game 5 and a ridiculously close series between Chicago and Pheonix. I think the St. Louis series against the Sharks will wrap up in the next game, maybe 2, but don't count the #6 Blackhawks out of anything (more on this in the next segment). In the east its a different story. Three series are knotted at 2-2 and have turned into a best of 3. And you already know about the drama unfolding in the 3-2 series that is Flyers vs. Pens. Could we see all 4 series go to Game 7 in the east? I think so.

4. And with tight series come tight games. Ten of the 34 games have gone to sudden death overtime. Remember how I said don't count the Blackhawks out about 2.7 seconds ago? All four games in that series that is at 3-1 have gone to OT. The Hawks are two kick saves, one timely body check and a sneeze of one fan away from having won this thing 4-0! And 23 of the 34 games have been decided by one goal. Bottom line... don't turn any of these off before they're over, unless the Penguins score five unanswered goals in the 2nd period. Then turn it off or flip over to the Hawks vs. Coyotes where you're guaranteed a sudden death OT.